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| #1014957 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 02.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective burst. Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds remain near 50 kt and the central pressure is near 998 mb. The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone`s life. The new forecast track, which is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands in about 12 h, then make landfall over Belize in 18-24 h. After that, a generally westward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico. The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall. However, the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows this trend, however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity guidance. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it makes landfall in Belize. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken until it dissipates by the 60 h forecast time. Observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that Nana remains a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana is expected to bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |