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| #1014962 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 02.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Although is seems as though we`ve been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar`s winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I`ll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM. Omar`s initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |