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| #1015026 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 02.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to persist near Omar`s center, and the depression should degenerate to a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching mid-latitude frontal system. Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 36.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |