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#1015061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 03.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center
occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective
canopy. Based on last evening`s ASCAT pass and a recent
classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30
kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been
enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because
Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea
surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions
are not expected to become less conducive for convective
development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for
Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming
increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the
next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing,
it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a
remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the
NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all
global models indicate that the remnant low`s circulation should
open up into a trough by then.

Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of
the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue
for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast
by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track
forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite,
and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg