|
Show Selection: |
| #1015089 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 03.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana is weakening rapidly as it crosses northern Guatemala. There are no available observations near the center, so the initial intensity estimate of 40 kt is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. The initial motion is 260/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone`s life. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana for a few more hours. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 14.9N 96.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |