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| #1015126 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 03.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once again, reflect this scenario. It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.4N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |