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| #1015161 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 03.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models. The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar`s motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.2N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |