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| #1015608 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 07.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005. Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges, especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction at days 3 through 5. Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |