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| #1015837 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 09.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective band, over its western semicircle. Scatterometer data indicate winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the system is again being designated as a tropical storm. The cyclone should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane late this week. By the weekend, increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the southern side of a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge near 40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. By the end of the forecast period, Rene`s forward progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level flow. As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the latest corrected multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |