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#1016101 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 11.Sep.2020)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past
several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have
developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of
the system`s decline is not clear. One negative environmental
factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS
model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent. Using a
blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along
with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain
advisory intensity of 35 kt. Since the cyclone should remain over
waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to
increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is
expected. Based on the current state of Rene, the official
intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening
through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions. By the latter
part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should
result in weakening. The NHC forecast is above most of the
intensity guidance.

The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward
motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the
western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of
days. Then, a high pressure area building to the north and
northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward
speed and a turn toward the left. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA
corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 20.3N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 21.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.3N 45.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.9N 46.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.3N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 26.8N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.8N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch