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| #1016189 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 AM 12.Sep.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 80.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 80.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida during the next hour or so, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely while the center crosses the Florida Peninsula today. It is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico and gradually intensify through Monday. A wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently reported at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School campus on Virginia Key, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in south Florida overnight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected across the western Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |