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#1016252 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 12.Sep.2020)
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased
over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches
remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial
intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to
battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance
indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to
under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be
increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days
due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of
these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep
convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will
struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down
over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene
degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low
confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over
warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone
longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could
become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly
due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement
with the various intensity consensus values.

Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto