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| #1016298 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 12.Sep.2020) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |