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| #1016346 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 12.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season. The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours. Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |