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| #1016349 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 12.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone`s environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |