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| #1016567 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 14.Sep.2020) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE MOVING ONSHORE BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS RAKING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 64.4W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to continue moving northwestward this morning and then turn northward by this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected this afternoon through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will pass over Bermuda within the next few hours. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past few hours and will continue to increase this morning. An observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a wind gust to 96 mph (155 km/h). A weather observing station at Pearl Island reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) while a reporting station at the Bermuda Heliport measured a wind gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to each Bermuda during the next 2 to 3 hours and will continue into early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |