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| #1016717 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Overall, Paulette`s satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. In fact, a 1743 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed a developing concentric eyewall cloud pattern with a fully enclosed eyewall and a larger outer convective ring that was nearly closed off. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective T-number of 94 kt and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 12-24 hours. On Wednesday, weakening is expected to begin as the cyclone traverses a sharp gradient of decreasing (less than 23C) oceanic temperatures. Around the same time, the deterministic models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a baroclinic boundary associated with major shortwave trough. Paulette should begin to lose its tropical characteristics at that time and complete an extratropical cyclone transition in 3 days. The ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the transition completed in 48 hours, which is also a possibility. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 030/13 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning, and then turn east-northeastward with a further increase in forward speed by Tuesday night. A slower southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered various interpolated deterministic aids. The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1232 UTC scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 34.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts |