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| #1016775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 14.Sep.2020) TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |