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| #1016778 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper- tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus. Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |