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| #1016877 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Teddy`s structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt. Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the track forecast is high. Teddy`s low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy`s intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I`d rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time. The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |