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| #1016996 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to the consensus guidance. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast point as the remnants could linger for a while longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.6N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |