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| #1017472 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 17.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 There has not been any organized deep convection near the center of Vicky in more than 12 hours as very strong vertical wind shear continues to take a toll on the cyclone. Vicky has become a swirl of low clouds and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is being declared a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Vicky. The Dvorak CI-number from TAFB suggests that the intensity of the system has fallen to 25 kt, which is the basis for the advisory wind speed. Very strong vertical wind shear associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy is expected to continue to cause the remnant low to weaken, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 24 to 36 hours. The official forecast follows suit and calls for dissipation by early Saturday. Vicky is now moving west-southwestward or 250/10 kt. The remnant low should remain on a west-southwestward heading while it is steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow over the next day or so. The latest NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids and in the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. This is the last NHC advisory on Vicky. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.1N 39.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |