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| #1017521 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 17.Sep.2020) TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near 120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday. An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours, including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that period. The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10 kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time range. It is also possible that the system will be losing tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this remains to be seen. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy`s track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |