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| #1017785 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 19.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Wilfred still consists of a very small low-level circulation embedded within an elongated area of low pressure. There has been a bit of an increase in deep convection near/over the estimated center during the past few hours, and the intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS SATCON. Wilfred will be moving over SSTs of around 28C but will experience a gradual increase in westerly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper-level trough amplifies to the northwest, and this should result in little change in strength during that time. Beyond that time, the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in the system becoming a remnant low and dissipating in 60 to 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion estimate based on the latest satellite fixes is 285/12. Wilfred should continue moving generally west- northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more westward by 48 h as it becomes a shallower system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has been adjusted farther south at 36 h and beyond, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.4N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.2N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.2N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.9N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 16.2N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 16.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |