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| #1017836 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 19.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred`s circulation center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery. The coldest cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous. Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the small size of the system, it wouldn`t be surprising if the cyclone weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here. The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.0N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |