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| #1018365 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 22.Sep.2020) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 96.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ESE OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF PALACIOS TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by surface observations and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.8 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). Beta is expected to stall inland over Texas today but will then begin to move slowly toward the east-northeast tonight. An east-northeast to northeast motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta is likely to begin weakening later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at Victoria, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |