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| #1018411 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 22.Sep.2020) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...EXTREMELY LARGE TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 64.1W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 64.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Satellite-derived winds and a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km). Buoy 44150, located about 150 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |