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| #1019720 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Oct.2020) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |