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| #1019904 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:34 PM 04.Oct.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |