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| #1020676 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 09.Oct.2020) TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA. Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region. The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |