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| #1022015 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 21.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon`s intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt during the past 24 hours. As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night. Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF models are showing some deviation to the east and west, respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model consensus aids. Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island as a hurricane. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |