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#1022117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 21.Oct.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening,
although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a
little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110
kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central
pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent
center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to
inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is
expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually
increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models
indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone
over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as
extratropical by that time.

Epsilon`s motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble,
which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has
resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so.
The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more
westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images
indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in
very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then
north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the
cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn
northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest
corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly
west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the
closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is
forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.6N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch