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| #1022148 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 22.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Epsilon`s eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an 0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon`s initial intensity is being set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than that, but I`d rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a few hours before reducing it any further. Epsilon`s trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the central Atlantic will be Epsilon`s main driver, causing the hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Epsilon`s forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |