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#1022213 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 22.Oct.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost
definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity
estimates haven`t changed much yet, they were generally higher than
the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to
75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing
more weight on the aircraft data.

Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at
roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and
continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a
break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move
considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get
caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment
to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days.
The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the
weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than
the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is
forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the
far north Atlantic.

The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of
days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger
secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a
trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could
lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon`s strength tomorrow or
Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane`s
wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds),
and that`s reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new
NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one,
adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin