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| #1022246 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 22.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher latitudes. Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one, and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm Warning for that island has been discontinued. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |