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| #1022379 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 23.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Convection in Epsilon`s southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane`s cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded. Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane`s structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter. Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 36.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |