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| #1022499 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 24.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection, but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon`s center. The intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data. The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is expected through this period, but the global models indicate that Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week. The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast remains high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |