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| #1022502 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 24.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning, and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |