|
Show Selection: |
| #1022528 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 25.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce inner-core convection. Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will be over much colder SSTs later this morning. This, along with an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or so. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic within 48 hours. The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the larger extratropical low Monday night. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 42.8N 53.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |