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| #1022720 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 26.Oct.2020) TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 86.0W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 86.0W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 86.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |