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#1022758 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 26.Oct.2020)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing
near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and
occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an
eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of
maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between
65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982
mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has
grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible
that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes
landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.

The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before
landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in
intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over
land as it crosses Yucatan, but that`s enough time to probably drop
it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental
conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in
the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly
light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The
peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those
factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it
could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern
Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler
waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected
to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the
model consensus.

Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about
305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and
western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east
of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from
the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and
move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model
guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor
differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and
the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic
U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and
dissipate soon thereafter.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to
continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through
Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake