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#1022827 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 27.Oct.2020)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 89.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH