Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1023094 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 28.Oct.2020)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of
Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95
kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern
Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the
sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is
actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for
this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during
the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt
on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or
040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land
effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the
center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing
these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made
to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and
merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The
official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model
consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track.

Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than
typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the
Forecast/Advisory product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the
Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the
early morning hours on Thursday.

2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the
next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama
coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and
far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta`s fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake