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| #1023622 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 AM 02.Nov.2020) TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline. After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area. The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very similar to the various model consensus predictions. Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 80.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch |