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| #1024758 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 11.Nov.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection associated with Theta has decreased further this morning, with strong southwesterly shear displacing the remaining convection to the north of the center. Based on the decreased organization, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt. Theta has continued to slow its forward speed, with the initial motion now 075/7. The cyclone is being steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 72 h or so. After that time, the global models suggest that the cyclone should shear apart, with the remnant low-level circulation moving northeastward on the southeast side of a deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous track. While the cyclone is currently experiencing strong shear, the global models show that this might diminish somewhat during the next 72 h as Theta moves into an area of light winds near an upper-level trough axis. This, combined with sufficient instability for deep convection, should allow the storm to change little in strength during this time. After 72 h, strong mid- to upper-level northerly flow should cause the system to weaken as the convection dissipates and the upper-level portion of the storm is pushed off to the south. The new intensity forecast is lowered a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 29.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven |