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#1025144 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 13.Nov.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that
Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm.
There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band
of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the
cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not
degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at
50 kt for this advisory.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone
continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to
upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is
forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets
entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to
spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday,
and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern
tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual
slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and
continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid-
to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next
week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then
accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the
north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the
previous one and lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 31.7N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 31.5N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 31.3N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.0N 19.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 31.1N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 31.3N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z 32.8N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 37.4N 15.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto