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#1025321 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 14.Nov.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta`s
center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with
the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n
mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this
convection has become farther displaced from Theta`s center, as the
system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the
cyclone`s appearance has changed little today, the initial
intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A
overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment
should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther
displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to
degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also
weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in
good agreement with the intensity guidance.

Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower
pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta
is weakening, which will result in a continued slow
east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a
shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become
southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead
of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the
northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few
days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies near the track consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto