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| #1025401 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:40 AM 15.Nov.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta`s exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |