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| #1025576 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 16.Nov.2020) TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days. The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial position. This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.5N 82.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |