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| #1045985 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 22.May.2021) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours. In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h. The new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours, and the initial motion is now 050/4. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.5N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |